Ashes to Ascendance: Modeling the growth of the Intaki population of Syndicate

Author: Evelyn Arnoux

Original post: https://forums.eveonline.com/t/yc-124-newcwc-ashes-to-ascendance/363635

Author’s Note: This is an entry into the Academic category of this year’s writing contest! To achieve something plausibly academic in tone and concept with (understandably) limited data able to be harvested from the lore, I had to do some… deeply irresponsible things with math. If you are a demographer, statistician, or just someone who values mathematical integrity, I can but apologize for my transgressions here.

Entry for YC124 New Eden Capsuleer’s Writing Contest in the Academic category.

The following article circulates among the Empyrean elite, catching the eye of some for the boldness of the claims it makes about a region and a people that rarely enter the public eye. The work is an updated and revised summary of a thesis delivered and defended at the University of Caile.

Eka bikids olloranveertye revyaar reviraat taarvat;naa avetyvahaacunaa avrashokra kiapahykparnaact “There are only two mistakes onthe road towards the truth;not startingandnot goingfar enough.” 2

The year was YC 12. Much of New Eden is reeling, fatigued and broken by the centuryof violence, terror, and tragedy which had been the Gallente-Caldari War. But in this moment of hope and peace, the faltering governmentof President Luc Duvalier of the Federation found the strength for one last enormity. With the Caldari now beyond his reach, his ire turned towards minorities that had opposed his Ultra-Nationalist bloc during the war, particularly dissidents of Intaki descent. Thousands of Intaki were arrested, given show trials, and summarily condemned as traitors. Yet Duvalier’s waning political capital was not equal to his rancor, and rather than execute the targetsof his ire, he grudgingly settled for banishing them from the Federation. But this was no general displacement, but rather a cruel and specific exile to the fringes of the sector, the remote constellation of Z-6NQ6. Lest anyone mistake this gesture for mercy, before departing the Federation fleet glassed the frontier settlements in the region, and then destroyed the stargate behind them. The exiles were forbidden tosettleon the devastated worlds, trapped in a handful of derelict spaceships, isolated and left to perish quietly in the black. 3

None would imagine that this secret, sordid shame of the Federation would lead to the genesis of a new, spacebound people that would flourish and expand at meteoric rates only matched by newly ascendant Empyrean powers decades later. A Precarious Genesis

The exact number and identity of these exiles is data that is regrettably irretrievable. The redoubtable Federation bureaucracy shows a curious gap here, in all likelihood not just a casualty of time but also of deliberate obfuscation by the Duvalier regime (and possibly, his successors) in order to downplay such an embarrassing and criminal abuseof power.For their part, even if the Intaki exiles had been disposed toimmediately convene an accurate census, the immediate demandsof their very survival precluded any such records from being made.

3 Popular accounts of these events are writtenby varyingdegrees of apologists for the Duvalier regime.See https://universe.eveonline.com/lore/intaki,https://universe.eveonline.com/lore/intaki-syndicate, https://universe.eveonline.com/lore/luminate-era-of-the-gallente-federation, and others. 2 Intakiproverb.Seehttp://www.ilfcorp.com/library/vaanin-kintaki/ 1 Abridged forpublicationfrom agraduate thesis submitted at the University of Caile

Regardless, there is broad consensus from surviving accounts that the approximate number of exiles was in the vicinityof five thousand. This population settled in the system which they named Poitot, upon a salvaged fragment of the shattered stargate. This will suffice toanchor the population model. The Semblanceof K 4

This tiny group of dissidents and rebels had stubbornly refused to starve and die in the deep void, as they were meant to. Instead, they had flourished and expanded throughout the neighboring spacelanes, building a nascent spacebound civilization quite unlike anything that had come before in New Eden - the Intaki Syndicate. Less than a hundred years later, the Syndicate had established 66 permanent stations spread over 46 star systems, while their influence extended far beyond that, becoming the dominant force in the region which now bears their name. A sum totalof 14 constellations, 103 systems, and 120 orbital stations now answer tothe Intaki Syndicate.

4 K is the variable commonly describingthe carryingcapacity of apopulation’s environment.

Though the Poitot system in Z-6NQ6 retains a certain significance tothe erstwhile exiles, their population is markedly decentralized. The Syndicate commands this vast region not through naval might, nor central governance, nor by harnessing the wealth of worlds teeming with industry, for they possess none of these. Instead, this evolving frontier is woven by gossamer chainsof mutual commercial advantage, a phenomenon that deserves itsown study. But our concern here is the growth of the exiled Intaki population itself, not its influence. Forbidden the colonization of the planets below, the Intaki did not become nomadic spacefarers, as did some spacefaring Matari peoples. 5 Instead, they constructed an expanding network of permanent orbital platforms, beginning with their initial single scavenged, ramshackle type III habitat built from the shattered stargate and other salvage. 6 Over time, their iterative attempts with ever-increasing resources produced type II and type I stations equal to core standards. While some small percentageof the population does dwell upon prospecting or transport vessels,or in later years has ventured to the planets for the purpose of limited resource extraction, these exiles have continued on in the tradition that was initially forced on them. The result is an orbital culture unlike anything else seen in the sector until the adventof the Empyreans, and sothe studyof the peoplesof Syndicate is a first and foremost a studyof the population of the stations there. CONCORD databases provide more stable (if incomplete) demographic data in these last decades, charting orbital platforms across known space. The number of those registered to the Intaki Syndicate has remained stable over the past two decades, despite the churn of Empyrean factions through the region. 7 This strongly suggests that its station-bound population can be inferred to have neared K soon after YC105 and continuing on tothe present day. This can be used to help derive the upper bound of the model we are constructing. Broad Strokes upon a Void

It is regrettably foreseeable that an accurate census of the current population is not possible. One would be hard pressed to find a culture more intrinsically hostile tocumbersome bureaucracy than that found among the Intaki Syndicate, a people of exiles cast out into the dark precisely because of their disobedience toa state defined by such practices. Further complicating any such data collection is the autonomy of individual stations, each pursuing the (sometimes competing) interestsof theirown governors under unique administrative paradigms. 8

But we are not entirely without recourse. A surveyof the stations registered tothe Intaki Syndicate reveals a manageable spectrum of superstructure designs. Of the 66 stations under direct Syndicate control, they are classified as follows:

8 https://universe.eveonline.com/lore/intaki-syndicate 7 (( No knownnew NPC stationshave beenadded toSyndicate since the launchofEve in(YC105) )) 6 Followingthe traditional classificationsystem of artificialhabitatsused inthe Federation.See “####Artificial Habitat GradingSystem” inhttps://universe.eveonline.com/lore/demographics-of-the-gallente-federation 5 e.g. the Thukker Tribe.https://universe.eveonline.com/factions/thukker-tribe

While a more modern, massive Keepstar design might house as many as 132 million souls, 9 the designs used by the Syndicate are far more modest in size and functionality. They are more comparable tothe models favored in the core, which house some hundreds of thousands. While exact populations are notoriously hard to pin down even there, likely due to a high turnover among circulating residents and spacefarers, the death tollof the Ishukone Headquarters in Malkalen provides a tragic snapshot of the population of a thriving core station, at 300,000 souls. 10 While the Syndicate stations are slightly smaller than thatof the ill-fated Ishukone complex, they alsosupply a not insignificant population of small, unregistered stations and prospecting vessels operating in the vicinity. Furthermore, despite their varying designs, their size and capacity are quite similar. Accordingly, a population of 300,000 seems a reasonable average for the population hosted by a typicalorbital complex in the Syndicate region. Of course, the Intaki Syndicate itself does not directly administrate the entire population of the region. The Syndicate only is noted as the owner of 66 of the 120 CONCORD-registered stations in the region, with the remainder distributed as follows: ● Twenty-eight stations of the Gallente Federation, including Quafe (12); Aliastra (8); TransStellar (6); and Impetus (2). ● Sixteen stations under the aegis of the Caldari State, among them Expert Distribution (6); Ishukone (4); Nugoeihuvi (4); and Modern Finances (2). ● Ten stations represent the presence of the Thukker Tribe, divided between the Trust Partners (6) and the Thukker Mix (4).

10 Gonzalez, Tony. The Empyrean Age. TOR, 2008, Chapter 45. 9 The Scope – Circle-Of-Two Prepare For Defense Of M-OEE8 Keepstar

The populations on these unaligned stations are undoubtedly dominated by peoples of their respective ethnicities. Still, they are partof theoverall population of the region, as they are still deeply entwined with the Intaki, economically and culturally. The demands of practicality suggest that these corporations employ and host no small number of the local populace, both for their knowledgeof the region as well as a readily available labor pool. Likewise, Syndicate stations have their own non-native populations, brought there for trade or diplomacy or anyof the sundry reasons humans might flee the core worlds for the frontier. Gaining a demographic count on the distribution of these various populations, however, is sadly impossible. Corporate culture is deeply steeped in suspicion and mistrust, and regularly resorts to secrecy or deception rather than revealing sensitive internal information. Still, in the absenceof reliable data as tothe demographics aboard each type of station, we shalloperateon the principle 11 that the proportionsof these various groups are roughly equivalent, and this mirrored propagation enables us to move forward with the model. That is tosay, the population percentageof Intaki natives and outsiders are roughly equivalent, in sum, tothe numberof stations belonging toeach. These stations are also similar in size and design to those constructed by the Intaki. This then allows us to estimate the current total population of these 122 stations in Syndicate to be approximately 36,600,000, which in turn provides a reasonable estimate for K, the carrying capacity for the population of the Syndicate station network.

11 ((entirely unjustified))

A Model Emerges

Given the heavy reliance on estimates in collecting data in Syndicate, it would be rather irresponsible to attempt to use more complex models designed to give high precision by incorporating a bevy of precise statistics. Instead, a relatively simple and well-established population growth model will be more suited to the tools at hand, such as this well-established formula:

P(t) = variable (the population at a given time) t = variable (numberof years after YC 12) r = (the relative rateof growth of the population) K = 36,600,000 (the carrying capacityof the Syndicate station network) A = (a necessary constant derived from the scopeof the population’s expansion) The constants A and r require calculation before the model is functional for the desired variablesof time and population.First, A must be established, which is easily enough accomplished through the following equation:

K = 36,600,000 (the carrying capacityof the Syndicate station network) P0 = 5,000 (the initial seed population of theFive Thousand exiles) A = 7319 (the new derived constant) The remaining constant to be anchored is r, the relative rate of growth. This requires knowledge of the population at a given point in time, one last critical estimate to firmly anchor the model. These stations were all in place and operational by YC105, and so can be assumed to have at least 90% of their designed personnel in place by that point. This will serve to solve the first equation for r, yielding .1193 as the approximate relative rateof growth of the Syndicate population. Given these assumptions and estimates, the model is now functional, and describes the growth rate of the station-dwelling population of Syndicate over the past century with plausible certainty. With YC12 as t=0, inserting any subsequent year into the model readily yields a reasonable estimate of theoverall population at that time;or the inverse, if desired.

P(t) = variable (the population at a given time) t = variable (numberof years after YC 12) r = .1193 (the relative rateof growth of the population) K = 36,600,000 (the carrying capacityof the Syndicate station network) A = 7319 (a derived constant)

WhatFuels such Fire?

A relative growth rate of 11.93% is, of course, absurdly unsustainable through natural reproduction alone. Despite their clandestine and insular nature, it is highly unlikely that the Intaki Syndicate has somehow managed to conceal a radical mechanism to fuel its rapid population expansion, e.g. some lurid holofantasy of mass cloning or sprawling gestation farms. The truth must lie in more mundane explanation, of a naturally fecund people expanding swiftly in a novel environment, combined with more mundane immigration and assimilation. The more practical question is how much is attributable toeach cause.

In the core worldsof the GallenteFederation, the eponymous bloodline comprises some 30-35% of theoverall population. Despite laboring under considerable economic and political disadvantages in comparison to the favored children of the Federation, the Intaki still comprise some 20% of the population, far higher than their counterparts among the Mannar (10-15%), the Jin-Mei (5%), or other, more marginal ethnicities.

12 For whatever culturalor genetic reasons (beyond the scope of this model), it can be reasonably assessed that the Intaki in the Federation display an above-average rate of population growth. This trait is likely shared by their exiled cousins in Syndicate space,or even elevated by the unique conditions there. Remember that the current balance of stations in the region puts 55% of them under direct Syndicate control. If one applies that proportion totheoverall growth rate, it would suggest that the ethnically Intaki population grew at a much more explicable 6.56%. A growth rate of 5% is quite high for a pre-modern population under normal circumstances, but has ample precedent even in cultures before modern core-standard medical advancements. 13 Despite their initial hardships, the peopleof Syndicate retained technological advantages while propagating through a desolate sector, could certainly have modestly exceeded this figure without resorting tostrange technologies and the stuffof fevered conspiracies. The remainder of the population would then have been provided by a still staggering influx of immigrants, larger than the growth of most normal populations (5.37%). However, this sortof migration is supported by accounts and records in the region, telling of an influx of outcasts, pirates, prospectors, and others drawn totheopportunities offered by the loose governanceof the Intaki Syndicate. 14

Even with these two driving forces fueling the growth of the Syndicate region separated and individually explicable, it must be stressed that either one of them alone would be remarkable for its magnitude. Both combined together form a quite uniquely accelerated paceof development. Interdisciplinary Implications

In isolation, the population figures provided by this model might seem but a passing curiosity. However, the trends they describe are of no small import in many fields beyond simple demographics or models of orbital development. The model helps to define distinct periods within the Syndicate region: the initial struggle for survival before growth beyond the Poitot system (~YC 12-46); a period of rapid expansion and asserting commercial dominance (~YC 46-100); and the slowing transition into the modern configuration we observe today (~YC 100-present). The presence of these trends informs studies in many other disciplines, including but certainly not limited to the following:

14 https://universe.eveonline.com/lore/intaki-syndicate 13 (( Thehighest relativegrowthrate amongnations onEarthbetween 2011-2020 was 5.33%. https://www.worlddata.info/populationgrowth.php)) 12 ####Member races,https://universe.eveonline.com/lore/demographics-of-the-gallente-federation

● Assembling the historical record of Syndicate from fragmentary records and personal accounts ● The economic studyof the creation of a dominant interstellar black market economy ● Comparative ethnography between the divergent Intaki populationsof Syndicate and the core worlds ● Linguistic shifts away from older Intaki dialects towards the gestalt patois found in Syndicate today

Has the Intaki Syndicate reached its Zenith?

It is undeniable that the orbital habitats of Syndicate have plateaued in number and population, and sothere are two possible answers to this question. First, that the station-dwelling peoples of Syndicate reached its apex within the past two decades and is well into a period of stagnation. For a small population whose domain is vastly outsize to conventional predictors of their reach, this would be a troubling, even ruinous trend. Syndicate sovereignty is not safeguarded by military might, technological superiority, or raw capacity for production, as are most domains carved out from the frontiers. Rapid, laissez-faire economic expansion has fueled its success, and if that era is over, one can only assume that a collapse is imminent. The other possibility would assume that a people that thrived so magnificently despite being left for dead would not lose that capacity within mere living memory; 15 that the Intaki did not drastically reverse their cultural childbearing norms, and that immigration trends did not collapse. This would mean that the Syndicate population has not actually stagnated, but is actually still continuing toexpand under the otherwise aggressive leadership of Silphy en Diabel. 16 This continued expansion would not be through the orbital platforms which have been their traditional domain for the last century, but instead a less easilyobserved propagation into new environments. The Intaki exiles were originally forbidden from settling the worlds of the region, and long lived in fear of punitive action by another Federation armada. However, the Federation has clearly lacked the power to enforce that directive for at least two decades, and Empyrean factions are well underway seeding the worlds of the region with their own complexes. How many of those which dwell and work there are of Syndicate stock? How many other such settlements founded by the Intaki exiles go unnoticed amidst the churn of the modern age? The answers to both questions are quite likely tosurprise those who underestimate the peoplesof Syndicate. The advent of Empyrean corporations provides another substantial avenue for expansion, through the Upwell orbital platforms they make such extensive useof. These massive structures areordersof magnitude larger than those used before (including in Syndicate space), and each house populationsof millions. The myriad baseliners which staff these immense platforms are not conjured from thin air; and though these corporations would surely prefer toinstall

16 https://universe.eveonline.com/lore/silphy-en-diabel 15 "While inpre-spaceflight civilizations the averagepersoncould expect to live into their 80s or 90s should they avoid other causes of death, the average citizenof New Edencanregularly reachtheir mid-120s. Certainindividuals canlive evenlonger, thanks to implants, cloning, anti-agathic drugs, or other life-extensiontreatments."https://universe.eveonline.com/lore/death

loyalists imported from the plentiful populations of the core worlds, that is unlikely to be the sole source of staff. There is significant economic pressure to use cheaper, already localized manpower as well, especially in more remote regions. Those well adapted to station life are surely all the more desirable as recruits. How many millions of those now serving the interestsof various Empyrean organizations were steeped in Syndicate culture? Lastly, the era of strict, enforced isolation of the Syndicate region is long past, with theFederation beset by powerful rivals and no longer able tointimidate and curtail the exiles they castout solong ago. Even as the peoplesof the core worlds immigrate tothe freedom of the Syndicate frontier, sotoothe Intaki must circulate beyond their quiet region of space. Chasing new opportunities or commercial advantage, the descendants of these exiles now circulate through the various Empires of man. Whatever wonders or horrors await them there, few will forget where they have come from and the lessons they learned there. How much commerce among the core worlds is now influenced by entrepreneurs forged in the economic crucibleof the Syndicate? As before, soagain?

The current era is increasingly dominated by capsuleer corporations, whose wealth and capabilities have allowed them to expand at startling rates which the great empires cannot match and which history has almost no precedent for. The rapid growth of the Intaki Syndicate is the closest, and perhaps only analogue to the current Empyrean era of explosive growth. Closer study of the pressures which enabled and ultimately constrained the Syndicate may provide valuable insights into the emerging patterns of the new era. The Empyreans too must eventually reach their own limits for expansion, and when that happens, they must either stagnateor transform soas toexpand into novel environments. Of the two possibilities, it is difficult tosay which is more perturbing. More than the Sum of its Parts

The preliminary conjecture in this study serves as both a proof of concept and demonstration of value for further inquiry. Viable demographic patterns for the populations of Syndicate are recoverable through modeling despite the lack of reliable databases from the period or region. The formulas used here illustrate the growth of a unique orbital-bound population which is singular in its time and the closest precursor to the emerging patterns of the Empyrean Age. Continued study is warranted not only to better understand the historyofoneof the more unique biosystems and cultures of the sector, but also to comprehend significant demographic changes going unnoticed in the chaosof the present day.

menactayatyhaaculabhatayaty - “Seek and you will find.” 17

17 Intakiproverb.Seehttp://www.ilfcorp.com/library/vaanin-kintaki/